Program and Agenda

Abstract

ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION AND PREDICTION OF NORTH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important driver of climate variability, both regionally and globally and on a large range of time scales from decadal to centennial and even longer. Direct measurements of the AMOC strength have only very recently become available. A novel method based on a global climate model is used to reconstruct decadal AMOC variability during 1900-2010 from the history of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the most important mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic sector. The reconstructed AMOC variability is consistent with that of the observed North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A large decadal predictability potential of North Atlantic SST is suggested, solely arising from the past history of the NAO. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the leading mode of decadal North Atlantic SST variability, which is closely linked to societally important quantities such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall, is forecast until 2031 using the reconstructed AMOC up to 2010. The present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until 2020, but with a strong negative tendency after 2015. Neutral AMO conditions are forecast toward the end of the 2020s.

Authors

Latif, M., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany, mlatif@geomar.de

Klöwer, M., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany, mkloewer@geomar.de

Ding, H., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany, hding@geomar.de

Greatbatch, R. J., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany, rgreatbatch@geomar.de

Park, W., GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany, wpark@geomar.de

Details

Oral presentation

Session #:137
Date: 2/28/2014
Time: 12:15
Location: 312

Presentation is given by student: No