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Hendrik Tolman, H. L., EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Hendrik.Tolman@noaa.gov
Zulema Garaffo, . ., IMSG, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Zulema.Garraffo@noaa.gov
Avichal Mehra, . ., EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Avichal.Mehra@noaa.gov
Ilya Rivin, . ., IMSG, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Ilya.Rivin@noaa.gov
Hae-Cheol Kim, . ., IMSG, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Hae-Cheol.Kim@noaa.gov
Todd Spindler, . ., IMSG, Camp Springs, MD, USA, Todd.Spindler@noaa.gov

OCEAN PLUME AND TRACER MODELING FOR THE FUKUSHIMA DAI'ICHI EVENT

NCEP/NWS deployed particle tracing to predict the movement of radionuclides in the ocean shortly after the Japaenese Nuclear disaster near Fukushima. Daily nowcast/foecast fields from 1/12 HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) model output were used to track inert particles at the ocean surface, assuming that the surface behavior is reasonably representative for the ocean mixed layer, and that the radionuclides will mostly be contained in and distributed by the upper mixed layer of the ocean. With the particle tracing information, NCEP produced estimates of retention time of radionuclides near the coast, as well as dispersion time scale of these materials through the Pacific Ocean, particularly by persistent current systems like the Kuroshio and its extension, and the Oyashio. This helped identify both potentially safe areas in the Pacific, and areas of potential exposure on the time scales of weeks to months. Full tracer computations capability of HYCOM has also been used to predict the dispersion of radionuclides in a nested North West Pacific subregion model within RTOFS-Global. The initializations and boundary conditions of the nested subregion were incrementally updated daily from the nowcast fields of the global model. Some preliminary results from the tracer computatioins will also be presented.

Session #:088
Date: 2/21/2012
Time: 15:00
Location: Ballroom E

Presentation is given by student: No