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Coelho, E. F., University Southern MS (resident NRL), Stennis Space Center, USA, emanuel.coelho.ctr.po@nrlssc.navy.mil
Peggion, G. ., University New Orleans (resident NRL), Stennis Space Center, USA,
Rowley, C. ., Naval Research Laboratory, Oc. Division, Stennis Space Center, USA,
Jacobs, G. ., Naval Research Laboratory, Oc. Division, Stennis Space Center, USA,
Hogan, P. ., Naval Research Laboratory, Oc. Division, Stennis Space Center, USA,

PLUME SIMULATIONS USING OCEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR THE FUKUSHIMA DAI-ICHI NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT

The Fukushima plant damage caused radioactive contamination of coastal waters. Major issues characterizing the extent of the affected waters were a poor knowledge of amounts released and the complex coastal dynamics of the region that are not deterministically captured by the prediction systems. To assess the areas that were most likely affected by the accident, while taking into account these limitations and uncertainty in model velocities, an ensemble of 32 runs of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model was configured over the region. Tracer particles have been released on each ensemble member, every hour since the accident time; their locations at each instant can be considered as mean positions of reference water volumes or radioactive amounts, and used to identify areas where signatures of water released from the plant could be found. Results were then compared and integrated with a direct diffusion-advection solution based on the available reports defining inputs of radiation over the coastal region. A stochastic plume was then determined using Risk Assessment Code analysis that associates a number from 1 to 5 to each grid point, determined by the likelihood of having an high radiation concentration and/or tracer particle within short ranges, hence defining high risk areas and those recommended for monitoring. Maps detailing the risk assessment will be discussed using available local observations to assess their consistency and relevance for planning operations at sea.

Poster presentation

Session #:088
Date: 2/21/2012
Time: 10:30 - 16:00
Location: Poster/Exhibit Hall

Presentation is given by student: No

PosterID: B1006