Abstract


DETECTING EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE BLOOMS USING SPATIAL ANALYSIS (S)

Catastrophic regime shifts have been documented across multiple ecosystems and can have severe consequences for biological communities and ecosystem processes. Much recent work has focused on identifying ecosystems that are in danger of undergoing a catastrophic transition. Theoretical exercises suggest that as ecosystems approach catastrophic transitions, they may display unique statistical properties referred to as early warning indicators. We tested the detectability of early warning indicators that were based on high-resolution spatial data in an aquatic ecosystem during an experimentally-induced transition to blue-green algae dominance. High resolution spatial patterns of phycocyanin along with other surface water characteristics were measured using the FLAMe platform. We observed elevated spatial variance and median absolute deviation, along with an expanded tail of extreme values and a smoothing of spatial power spectra associated with the blue-green bloom. These characteristics were not observed in variables such as temperature in the same lake, nor in phycocyanin in a nearby reference lake. These results support the idea that the emergence of unique spatial properties are associated with the bloom formation of blue-green algae.

Authors

Butitta, V. L., University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Limnology, USA, vincent.butitta@wisc.edu

Carpenter, S. R., University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Limnology, USA, steve.carpenter@wisc.edu

Pace, M. L., University of Virginia, USA, pacem@virginia.edu

Uppgaard, A., University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA

Stanley, E. H., University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Limnology, USA, ehstanley@wisc.edu

Details

Oral presentation

Session #:SS04
Date: 06/06/2016
Time: 15:15
Location: Sweeney Ballroom B

Presentation is given by student: Yes