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Baptista, A. M., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, baptista@stccmop.org
Spitz, Y. H., Oregon State University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Corvallis, USA, yvette@coas.oregonstate.edu
Needoba, J. A., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, needobaj@stccmop.org
Peterson, T. D., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, petersont@stccmop.org
Zuber, P. ., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, pzuber@ebs.ogi.edu
Herfort, L. M., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, herfortl@ebs.ogi.edu
Seaton, C. M., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, cseaton@stccmop.org
Cho, K. H., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, choj@stccmop.org
Welle, P. ., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, wellep@ebs.ogi.edu
Lopez, J. E., Oregon Health & Science University/NSF Center for Coastal Margin Observation & Prediction, Beaverton, USA, jesseelopez@gmail.com

COLLABORATORY-ENABLED ECOLOGICAL FORECASTS

“Collaboratories”–structured integrations of information, methods and people, anchored on modern observation and prediction–are potentially transformative constructs for conducting coastal margin science. In particular, ecological forecasting benefits from a collaboratory approach that facilitates iterative improvements based on input from scientists and stakeholders. Using as reference a specific collaboratory (SATURN; http://www.stccmop.org), we review and reflect on the status, challenges and skill of emerging ecological forecasts for the Columbia River coastal margin in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Forecast scope ranges from the timing of ecologically important features (e.g., estuarine turbidity maxima) and management actions (e.g., smolt releases), to the extent of salinity intrusion into the estuary, oxygen depletion associated with shelf hypoxia, plankton blooms and other physical and biogeochemical conditions that together influence the habitat, and thus the ecology, of the estuary. Temporal windows range from near real-time to climate-scale. Regions of interest span across river-to-shelf scales. Methods range from empirical relationships derived from rich inventories of physical and biogeochemical observations, to numerical models of variable complexity. Synthesis of complex ecological behavior in compact and ultimately predictable ‘environmental sentinels’ are illustrated.

http://www.stccmop.org/datamart/observation_network/hypoxia

Oral presentation

Session #:S41
Date: 02-14-2011
Time: 09:00

Presentation is given by student: No